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  #28581  
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Does luck even out over 38 games?
We never had much rub of the green and a sophisticated predictive analysis by Intel, ESPN, and the University of Bath has shown that Manchester United were the luckiest team while Liverpool were the unluckiest in the whole Premier League last season.

The index table is shown in the next post.


The study trained three reviewers who watched every game of the season and flagged incidents that could be considered lucky (and unlucky) in nine categories. Incidents were only included in the study if two of the three reviewers flagged an incident.

They came up with 157 incidents, of which a random sample of 20 were then ratified by a Premier League referee. They broke down as:

-- 17 incorrectly awarded goals (offside, foul in the buildup, etc.)
-- five incorrectly disallowed goals (incorrect whistle for handball, etc.)
-- eight incorrectly awarded and converted penalties
-- 50 penalties not awarded that should have been
-- one incorrect red card
-- 19 red cards not given that should have been
-- 16 goals scored outside of injury time
-- 41 deflected goals
(Reviewers also checked for incorrectly awarded and converted free kicks, but no such incidents were included)

This dataset was then input into a predictive model that adjusted the final scores if those incidents had occurred differently -- accounting for the time of the incident, penalty conversion rates and more -- and output a probability density of scores across 100,000 simulations. The median probability (the most common) was then used to redraw the table.

The adjusted table shows that:

Liverpool should have been 2nd
Man United the 4th
Arsenal the 5th

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  #28582  
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The Luck Index Table:


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Among the notable impacts on the final table:

-- Relegated Stoke City (-0.27) would have earned four more points, enough to move them from 19th place into 17th and send Huddersfield (-0.09) down in their place on goal difference. The Potters would have earned a win at Leicester on Feb. 24 and a draw against Crystal Palace on May 5.

-- Man City (-0.01) would have had only three points deducted from their 100 points -- still enough to break the previous Premier League record of 95. However, City benefitted from a league-high extra 13 goals, without which their record-breaking total of 106 would have been 93, well below the previous high of Chelsea's 103 from 2009-10. Their record plus-79 goal difference would have fallen to plus-66, below that same Chelsea squad's previous high of plus-71.

-- Arsenal's much-maligned away record in Arsene Wenger's final season would have been 11 points better, though the Gunners (-0.47) also benefited from an extra three points at home, for a net gain of eight points -- the second-most in the league that would have pushed them above Chelsea (-0.11) into fifth place.

-- Gary Cahill's sending off against Burnley in Chelsea's season opener was the only red card deemed to be given incorrectly all season.

-- Burnley, the second-luckiest team at +0.22, would still have been secure in their Europa League spot in seventh place despite dropping four points.

-- Leicester City's luck index of +0.20 slightly trailed Man United's +0.25, Burnley's +0.22 and Bournemouth's +0.21, but the Foxes benefitted the most in the table, earning seven extra points. Without that boost, they would have plummeted from ninth to 14th place. Bournemouth would have lost six points and fallen four spots to 16th.

-- Tottenham (-0.10) and Leicester were involved in the most incidents with 21, though Leicester's were more impactful, costing them seven goals and seven points in the table. Although Spurs would have lost 10 goals, their points total would not have moved.

-- Brighton's impressive return to the top flight would have been six points better, catapulting the Seagulls (-0.32) from 15th to a lofty ninth-place finish -- and an extra 12m in prize money.

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For me, the greatest impact is the necessity of VAR in the premier league.

It is not fully known which teams voted against VAR. Apparently, Liverpool, Man City, Arsenal and Tottenham voted for it.

Man United and Chelsea voted against.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football...lock-var-next/

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Liverpool 3 : Torino 1

(Firmino, Gini, Sturridge) : (Belotti)

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Lol, hope I've jinxed the prayer.

But, seriously, that can happen.

Klopp wants to make Alisson the finest ball-playing goalie.
He said Alisson is a very good footballer and, probably, a good goalie as well.

Some are comparing Alisson and de Gea. But they are like apple and orange.
de Gea and Oblak are great goalkeepers - four more limbs appear to spring out in every direction out of them whenever necessary.
But Alisson is of the kind of Manuel Neuer, Ederson and Hugo Lloris (Pepe Reina was the closest we ever had). Some are better sweeper-keepers, some are better playmakers (like Claudio Bravo). Klopp said he would have bought Alisson even if Liverpool had won the CL. Only the price wasn't right and he wasn't expecting it to come down to an affordable level.

These kinds of goalies take risks and howlers can happen. Hope those incidents don't rise to Bravo level.

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  #28587  
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Sturridge looking as good as I've seen him.
Playing almost as a CAM at times.
Plenty of firepower up top with Shaqiri and the Red Arrows.
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David Maddock

@MaddockMirror
For those #LFC fans with undying hope...Liverpool adamant no incomings today. Not much activity in other direction either, Danny Ings will go to the wire, with Palace the only concrete bid so far, though Saints remain interested and a preferred destination

James Pearce

@JamesPearceEcho
No incomings at #LFC today and now increasingly likely there will be no exits either. Liverpool yet to receive a suitable bid for Danny Ings
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Good win by Man U.

This is how you challenge Man City - not losing points against other teams is by far the better way than worrying about the 6 points involved in the two games against the topper-elect.

Hope all non-ManCity top teams do the same. Then the other teams will have to play football rather than cherry-picking matches they would attempt to win while rolling over in other games (like Everton focussing on us, with Sam declaring he couldn't think of any way to stop Man City, or like Mark Hughes did against Chelsea while managing Stoke by gifting them 5 goals using the 2nd string and resting main players for a subsequent match against NewCastle which they lost again btw - does Chalie Adam realise that could also be a factor, other than just Shaqiri, in Stoke going down?).

To rephrase this, basically, if all 6 top teams try to get close to a century of points, the rest of the teams will be forced to do an "eeny, meeny, miny, moe" than pre-targetting teams to take points off.

We lost 5 matches and drew 12 last season (losing 39 points). Is it difficult to see what has to be done?

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  #28590  
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(Mathematically) any top-6 team can get at least 84 points even if they lose all matches against the other top-6 teams.

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